Real Estate Market price evolution and Forecast for 2025 in Marbella

Alexandre Strumeyer
Jul 19
3 min read

Updated: Jul 23

PRICE EVOLUTION FORECAST FOR 2025

At the national level in Spain, fundamental factors such as the increase in population, growth in household formation, economic expansion, and the rise in employment and Social Security affiliations are contributing to the upward trend in the real estate market.

Additionally, the shift in interest rate trends has not only eliminated the main factor that negatively impacted the residential real estate market but has now become a variable with a significant positive effect.

In Marbella, international demand continues to be a key pillar of the local real estate market. Clients from Northern Europe and the United States continue to view Marbella as a safe and desirable destination, with strong expectations for value, quality, and transparency. At the beginning of 2024, foreign buyers accounted for more than 30% of property purchases in the province of Málaga, with British buyers leading (15%), followed by Dutch and Swedish buyers. Moreover, new markets are emerging, including buyers from Poland, the Czech Republic, North America, Ukraine, and Morocco.

The luxury market will be the most dynamic. Market performance varies notably between the luxury segment and the mid-range market. The luxury market (properties over €3 million) remains very active, especially in prime locations.

In contrast, the mid-range market (between €800,000 and €2 million) is experiencing a slowdown.

The extended timelines for obtaining permits for new construction projects mean that upward pressure on resale property prices will likely continue as long as the offer of new construction remains limited.

The growth forecasts for 2025 in Marbella are:

Luxury Segment (>€3M): 10 to 12%

Mid-Range Segment (€800K–€2M): 3 to 5%

Smaller and More Affordable Properties (<100m²): 8 to 12%

In 2025, we are expected to once again surpass the historical highs in housing prices.

EVOLUTION OF AVERAGE PRICES FOR RESALE HOUSING 2021-2024

IN SPAIN

According to REGISTRADORES, for all of Spain, at the end of the first quarter of 2025, the situation of the price per square meter for resale housing is as follows: the year 2025 continues the upward trend seen in the previous year. The increase in price per square meter stands at 1.9% on a quarterly basis and 8.1% on an annual basis. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the €2,093/m² price for resale housing has reached historic highs.

IN THE PROVINCE OF MÁLAGA

According to REGISTRADORES, over the three-year period from 2021 to 2024, the price per square meter for resale housing in the province of Málaga increased from €2,036 to €2,633/m², representing a 29.3% increase, while the price for new housing rose from €2,500 to €3,037/m², an increase of 21.5%.In the first quarter of 2025, the price of resale housing increased from €2,747/m² (Q4 2024) to €2,886/m², marking a 5% increase. Over the past year, the price per square meter rose from €2,409/m² (2024) to €2,633/m² (2024), an increase of 9.3%.

IN MARBELLA

We do not have sales numbers by city from Registradores de España, so we rely on data provided by real estate portals, which are based on asking prices rather than actual sales prices. In the table below, you can see the evolution of resale housing prices in different areas of Marbella between December 2021 and December 2024 (IDEALISTA). Depending on the area, price increases range between 31% and 56%.